On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
24H VOLUME
$339.1K
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Comments (50)
brightleaf 17h ago
Buy more Yes
AlexxHamilton Sep 15
noises .... don't care
MARV-1 Sep 15
Day for what?
KyroKennn Sep 15
Today is the day 😝
NoSteinNoGate Sep 14
How many times will YES bettors fall for the same thing again and again?
mewmew1 Sep 14
based
tsybka Sep 14
PEACE
yonips Sep 14
ah got it
yonips Sep 14
bc it's literally still sep 14 just read the rules dude
Ning0049 Sep 14
What is happing? Why doesn't the system resolve September 14 case?
RUMBLED Sep 14
Yes, that was my mistake. I meant to say resolves as Yes.
yonips Sep 14
Did you mean the only reasons it might resolve yes? didn't understand
IamBatman- Sep 14
yopp
RUMBLED Sep 13
There is gonna be a lot of price fluctuations from here until the date of expiry, whatever that is but Imo the only reasons this resolves no is if Trump passes and Vance takes over or if Trump decides to just declare victory and lie and say he'll withdraw. The amount of people here betting on him acting sane is ridiculous.
yungsoleimani Sep 13
hindsightmaxxing
0x41E8266341517750bec28829015b5289FE00b994-1766188710954 Sep 13
how tf did i miss this price action omg, it was at fckin 26% you can‘t make this shi up
Natstar777 Sep 13
Dummy
Natstar777 Sep 13
Yup
Natstar777 Sep 13
Huh
eugenewp Sep 12
WTF?
AlexxHamilton Sep 11
these are stupid toughts of Abdollah ,
12beduins Sep 11
Fox's Ingraham: What do you say to all the young men who supported you in 2024? Trump: And they still do. Ingraham: I think a lot of them still do, but some of them are demoralized. Trump: No, no, no. I don't think they're demoralized. I think they're very proud of the fact I'm not letting Iran have a nuclear weapon. I disagree with you.
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-1771671654656 Sep 10
Trump needs to start de-escalating if Republicans are going to win mid terms, bonds are sky rocketing, stock market tanking, im sure to short squeeze everyone he will de escalate this weekend or next.
NotCope Sep 9
War
iutwpfal Sep 9
It's risk free money really. No downsides.
AlexxHamilton Sep 8
hey abdollah , i know you lost a lot of money pray for you , it is a simple search to see how many barrel of oil US is selling before and after war .
doyouwanttogotothemoon Sep 8
> be products
AlexxHamilton Sep 8
situation in Houmoz is for US, US is selling too much oil with price 98 $ , just be smart guys .
0x12F04BB19edB5E59a1c41dB62F175eF9Fb422133-1782406402284 Sep 7
At least end of the year lmfao
0xbF4d202382 Sep 7
Lifting the blockade must be linked to the nuclear roadmap; otherwise, how can Trump's most important goal be achieved?
NoSteinNoGate Sep 7
It will never be resolved but at some point the blockade will be lifted
0xbF4d202382 Sep 7
If Iran publishes its shipping route map, the US will lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. What will the US gain?
0xbF4d202382 Sep 7
How could escalating tensions lead to lifting the strait blockade? What kind of logic is that?
0xbF4d202382 Sep 7
If the United States lifts the blockade, how will the nuclear issue be resolved?
RUMBLED Sep 6
The logical decision is for the United States to just withdraw and take the L. The problem is that the president is an 80 year narccisist who has an overwhelming need to always been seen as a winner. The only argument I see for an Sept. 30th resolution of Yes is if he's doing it to manipulate oil markets and is lying about withdrawing which actually makes this risky since the way the bet is worded only asks that an announcement is made, not neccesarily carried out.
adasol Sep 6
Iran and Oman to sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in coming days: Rezaei We have more from Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s top security official. “The new international corridor that Iran manages has been determined with the Omani brothers and will be announced in the coming days,” Rezaei said, according to state media.
AlexxHamilton Sep 6
GN mates .
conotocaurius Sep 6
Haven't changed my opinion. We're in the middle of a major escalation cycle. Either the US will lose a ship or the Israelis will cry uncle after about a week or so of bombing back and forth. The idea that Israel has suddenly learnt restraint and that's why it isn't attacking Iran isn't credible. They are scared of Iran's firepower and the lack of US interceptors. It's not out of the question the blockade is over by September 30th, basically 50/50.
RUMBLED Sep 6
He's a demented 80 year old that shits himself. That could be the explanation right there.
Archeroon Sep 5
19 hrs now
Archeroon Sep 5
Trump has kept silence on his social media forever almost 15 hrs now
Car Sep 5
peace
adasol Sep 3
the technical issue in the last few days is terrible .....
dizl Sep 3
Guys, the jig is up, sell your no shares. Hegseth just pinged everyone in my WoW guild server saying Trump's converting to shia islam and lifting the blockade after mr Mojtaba gave him a golden Quran.
Archeroon Sep 3
Privately, Trump is having discussions with senior aides about whether to declare the Iran war over, U.S. officials said, noting Trump has said he favors the idea. WSJ
doyouwanttogotothemoon Sep 2
China called…
Archeroon Sep 2
China stepped in, Xi told the US to gtfo from Hormuz in Cairo and told Iran to stop their fantasies about tolls
0x0ae18c5Fd72ea0C7530efebFA8b577E7C913e3A4-1773126452670 Sep 2
31 october
pohaiysa Sep 2
hey
conotocaurius Sep 1
Possibly September 30 is back in play even
