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Tech

Human moon landing in 2026?

1%
$2.0M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Weather

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

1%
$816.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Tech

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

2%
$586.5K Vol.•Ends Dec 31, 2026
Weather

Natural Disaster in 2026?

21%
$246.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

September 301%
December 314%
$187.0K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
Tech

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

35%
$122.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Weather

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

1%
$117.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027?88%
March 31, 202747%
$40.6K Vol.•Jun 30, 2027

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 202614%
December 31, 202659%
1 more
$33.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX46%
OpenAI1%
10 more
$26.5K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026
Science

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

4%
$24.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 202617%
December 31, 202659%
1 more
$15.1K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

047%
128%
4 more
$14.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
Tech

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

9%
$11.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer21%
Hodge Conjecture57%
4 more
$11.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

September 3091%
October 3191%
6 more
$9.9K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027
Science

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

3%
$9.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Science

New pandemic before 2028?

17%
$7.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 20265%
December 31, 202637%
1 more
$5.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

175%
224%
4 more
$3.7K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Riemann Hypothesis10%
P versus NP3%
12 more
$2.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

OOpenAI72%
AAnthropic28%
$2.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

DDecember 31, 20263%
DDecember 31, 202713%
1 more
$2.3K Vol.•Jan 1, 2029
Culture

Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?

100%
$1.7K Vol.•Ends Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"0%
2-3"23%
4 more
$1.6K Vol.•Oct 2, 2026
Weather

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

3%
$1.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

3500+99%
3300+100%
5 more
$1.4K Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in Seattle in September?

<1"25%
1-1.5"31%
5 more
$1.3K Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?

MMore than 550,00086%
MMore than 575,00061%
1 more
$1.2K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026
Tech

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

68%
$1.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑3.5k100%
↑4.5k88%
6 more
$1.0K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
World

New pandemic in 2026?

6%
$821 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Politics

Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?

11%
$796 Vol.•Ends Jul 1, 2027
Weather

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

7%
$660 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Politics

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

13%
$598 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?

<275mm86%
275-300mm3%
8 more
$550 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

<75mm85%
75-100mm13%
6 more
$539 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in London in September?

<30mm50%
30-40mm25%
5 more
$536 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

December 31, 20266%
December 31, 202720%
1 more
$505 Vol.•Jan 1, 2029
Finance

Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

10%
$458 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many SpaceX launches in September 2026?

<1297%
122%
3 more
$359 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 3157%
December 3161%
$331 Vol.•-

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 202612%
December 31, 202625%
$300 Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
Weather

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

27%
$257 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

11st hottest0%
22nd hottest96%
2 more
$170 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

FFewer than 206%
220 to 3454%
2 more
$152 Vol.•Mar 31, 2027
Weather

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

6%
$133 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Tech

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%
$112 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027