This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/CwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
24H VOLUME
$356
LIQUIDITY
$356
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
12beduins Jul 7
On June 27, just one week after turning 20, French mercenary Nathan Commaret was eliminated by an FPV drone near Stepnogorsk. He first came to Ukraine back in 2024, but did not fight at that time. Then, at the end of 2025, he arrived in a unit of French pseudo-neo-Nazis like himself, underwent training, and saw combat. His mother remains at home.
Kallipoliz Apr 1
fr they're so slow with these.
slurrydps Apr 1
Need may market
0x4d74e07e3d1BC8beE7FE8ab118545a37a53904f5-1761752718693 Mar 7
Okay that's funny
zerionig Feb 24
Based, but wishfull thinking.
caplit Feb 18
your portfolio looks perfect now, you deserved it :)
caplit Feb 18
yeah, ez for Ukraine to counter-attack
Quilty Feb 13
Without Starlink the Russians cant play WoW and jackoff to pornhub all day, the capture should happen way faster than expected
alexaverroes Feb 12
Liberated from soviet-era modernist architecture
Glicha Feb 12
No starlink for Ruzzia nazis, no capture
Glicha Feb 12
yes we see, post your loss
Glicha Feb 12
according to Russia you captured Kiev in 3 days
Glicha Feb 12
"liberate"? russia leaves just ruins
alexaverroes Feb 6
*Already liberated just waiting for ISW to run out of copium
alexaverroes Feb 6
Next one to be liberated
tsybka Feb 5
ez bet, soon
terjupi111 Feb 4
in what timeframe?
gghtx Feb 4
Next which will be occupied?
leCommissaire Feb 4
This is next after Myrnohrad
icantbreathe Feb 4
zero
3ADPOT Feb 4
It almost captured
J98 Jan 31
Wonder how this will go!
icantbreathe Jan 29
zero
IamBatman- Jan 27
"How much cope does a man need?"-Lev Tolstoy
Cleo558 Jan 25
Better to use Russia Today, eh?
Yanex Jan 24
This is Jan 21st 2026, last ukr troops are retreating in the north [link removed]
0x577 Jan 23
Using ISW as a reference is ridiculous..!! They are doing pro-Ukraine/West propaganda, not objective assessments.
artemchik13 Jan 22
Really easy money
artemchik13 Jan 21
Rebalance some on February and you will win . Trust me
0x35eBC17d018EBd9dD5689cDAe8bfC49BD93069FF-1761157666913 Jan 21
At latest ISW MAP update they marked territorial gain be ukranians that wasnt even Russian according ISW themselves. What a scammers
artemchik13 Jan 20
You will sell your positions. Believe me
Scottp1887 Jan 20
Suriyak and AMK are bullish AF with their mapping. Even some pro Russian mappers admit that there is still Ukrainian presence in the city
IamBatman- Jan 20
Dumpling is still on No side
0x35eBC17d018EBd9dD5689cDAe8bfC49BD93069FF-1761157666913 Jan 20
The infamous "No" holder @leCommissaire sold almost all of his shares ahahhahaha
0xcAe693F9696A2eBF767719B45f3545A2eBF771F Jan 20
AI slop bot
makeadream Jan 20
Man read the market rules. "The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line."
0x4B2997cE96f9fF66f13e4f5A5DB7AC090ce0623b-1765404694982 Jan 20
Administrative borders are irrelevant for resolution. ISW uses specific geolocation points for the settlement. If the city center point is red it is a Yes. Oracle UMA also cross references with DeepState for clarification if needed. This boundary talk is just FUD from No holders.
makeadream Jan 20
ISW maps stopped showing administrative borders of the cities recently. That's going to be a problem to resolve
0x35eBC17d018EBd9dD5689cDAe8bfC49BD93069FF-1761157666913 Jan 20
I didn't know. That's my first time
0x35eBC17d018EBd9dD5689cDAe8bfC49BD93069FF-1761157666913 Jan 20
I just hope than ISW have no choice but to admit this loss. After that hell no Im gonna enter market that depends on this scammers
yesnoletsgo Jan 20
It's insane how it dropped while AMK and Military Summary maps are showing Stepnohirsk under complete russian controle, and DeepState paint it either red or gray zone, where most their gray zones mean russian controle
0x35eBC17d018EBd9dD5689cDAe8bfC49BD93069FF-1761157666913 Jan 20
His tg: motopatriot78
0x35eBC17d018EBd9dD5689cDAe8bfC49BD93069FF-1761157666913 Jan 20
Russian blogger who didn't admit full capture of Stepnohirsk even others was saying about captured, finally wrote today, than Stepnohirsk finally fully controlled by Russians
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d Jan 19
God bless you guys, thank you. Please keep doing what you're doing. At this pace, I will be able to retire in 2027.
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d Jan 19
focus on operation UrAnus
icantbreathe Jan 19
god bless my stavka
icantbreathe Jan 19
ISW painted Zarichne, Stepnohirsk soon
PronayReincarnate Jan 19
[link removed]
icantbreathe Jan 19
Do people even know how winter in Russia /Ukraine looks like? People sit on the stove and warm themselves until it gets warm outside.
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d Jan 19
Do people even know how winter in Russia /Ukraine looks like? There is no way one can sustain protracted fighting. There will be some bombing /droning /snipering but only very few, small-scale, and targeted assaults.
