Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
24H VOLUME
$111.4K
LIQUIDITY
$111.4K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (39)
German240706 4h ago
I cant buy anything, there is always an error "Order failed" anyone knows why this is happening? Like a day ago everthing was fine
ElonSleep 8h ago
olaf will win
0xEB7d609131bDF21dCba6B31dAeB03499A29B859c-1767842169646 13h ago
Disgusting leftists. Vote AfD
DrOetker Sep 16
THE KNOW-IT-ALLS WILL LOSE. VICTORY WILL BE OURS!
DrOetker Sep 16
Last month three Democratic primaries for November's midterm elections ended with surprises. The streak started with a narrow escape on August 4th in Michigan's Senate race. Traders gave Abdul El-Sayed a 98% chance of victory as polls closed, with a 60% probability of winning by at least 15 percentage points. He won, but only by a single point. The following week Francesca Hong, who was trading at around 95% to win the nomination for governor of Wisconsin, narrowly lost to David Crowley. A week later Alexander Vindman, priced at 92% in Florida's Senate primary, lost by a whopping 12 points to Angie Nixon. DON'T FALL FOR IT!
DrOetker Sep 15
me no hablo ingles
manlets Sep 15
AfD?
1.beetern.1 Sep 15
BIG
DrOetker Sep 14
54 cent for a dollar? Sounds pretty good to me
TrueDignity Sep 12
Well actually it was in the 2021 election in Saxony-Anhalt where the polling error was the largest. But I like to project into the future and I think Die Linke will gain a few more % as the last polls come out and the undecided make their choice.
sesamff Sep 12
Once again I come to polymarket to collect right wing delusion fee.
DrOetker Sep 11
I agree that Linke now is more likely. But the question is not if it's more likely, but how likely. And if you look at the data they are still very close. I think there is big recency bias with the latest state election in Saxony-Anhalt, which had the biggest error there ever was for German opinion research institutes, which are typically very close to the truth. I think if you did a Monte Carlo simulation on the data you see the probability for CDU to be much larger. I don't know what the truth but I'm not cashing out at 20 and if I had Linke shares cashing out for what they are trading now I think you have a pretty good deal
TrueDignity Sep 10
CDU is unpopular at the national level and in Berlin. The campaign is focused on rent policy and Die Linke overhauled their communication since 2025 and got popular amongst the youth. And they won the most vote in Berlin in the 2025 federal election. They definitely got the momentum. The antisemitism scandal won't impact them much as this isn't a big issue to their target audience.
DrOetker Sep 10
Gays you're making a big mistake
Lowtaperfade Sep 10
Good job selling CDU btw lava lava I knew you wouldn’t disappoint me
Lowtaperfade Sep 10
Yeah lemme go for a swim in the pools too retard
Lowtaperfade Sep 10
A woman has only two questions in life: what to wear and how to not be as retarded as DrOetker that loves glazing CDU for no fucking reason
DrOetker Sep 10
type "sonntagsfrage Berlin" into google and get a brain
DrOetker Sep 10
This market is inefficiencymaxxing. Just look at the pools
DrOetker Sep 10
GET MY SHARES BACK UP!!!
Lowtaperfade Sep 8
retard
Lowtaperfade Sep 8
Plenty of liquidity for you, eat your fill
Lowtaperfade Sep 8
Btw consider where the lost votes you mentioned transfer
DrOetker Sep 8
Buy more!
Lowtaperfade Sep 8
Lava lava I respect you a lot but I’m afraid on this one I can’t agree with you
Lowtaperfade Sep 8
So much text that says so little.
DrOetker Sep 8
The ONLY REASON CDU got less than it was polling at is TACTICAL VOTING FOR GREENS, SPD AND BSW to KEEP THEM ABOVE THE 5% THRESHOLD and PREVENT AFD FROM GAINING AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY, because even some East Germans have what you call “A BRAIN”. This is obviously NOT APPLICABLE TO BERLIN, where AfD is polling at 17%. But for SMALL-BRAINED AMERICANS, let’s assume Saxony-Anhalt is applicable to Berlin: CDU was polling at 22% and got 17.2%, i.e. 21.82% LESS. LINKE was polling at 13% and got 8.6%, i.e. 33.85% LESS. So even accepting the wrong premise that Saxony-Anhalt translates to Berlin FAVORS CDU RELATIVE TO LINKE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
sesamff Sep 7
nius 😆
DrOetker Sep 2
Get CDU to 60. The MAUERSCHÜTZENPARTEI is not winning this!
DrOetker Sep 1
I was just informed that even spandex-wearing Berliners on ecstasy don't want LEFT-WING LUNATICS who destroy everything running their city. CDU is WINNING this election. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
sucuk-mit-ei Jul 24
afd leading new poll: nius de/politik/exklusive-umfrage-afd-jetzt-auch-in-berlin-auf-platz-1
Anthest Jul 23
AfD is going to overperform for sure
790DSFG3 Jul 23
robability is not that
sucuk-mit-ei Jul 2
this election gonna be wild
ikea1 Apr 29
well the probability is not that low since the other four parties are competing head-to-head and in the end the AfD could win with around 20%. Normally the party with the most votes has 30+% in recent years but Berlin will be different.
ISnortGlue Mar 28
who tf put his money on afd bro
rontro28 Jan 16
Does someone want to fill my NO order on FW by byuing YES?
BlockBuilders Dec 4
He must really hate money.
Shallushka Dec 2
The guy who put his money on FW pls comment here :)
