This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
24H VOLUME
$2.4M
LIQUIDITY
$2.4M
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
LA17 Sep 5
one or two quarter point hikes won't cause a 2022 style crash
Rooglish Sep 4
Rates will probably be going up. The bubble depends on low rates staying low. One of these days, perhaps when nobody expects it...something will happen.
LA17 Sep 4
the top no holder sold all his shares with a market order. he threw away so much money lol. I'm so mad at myself for not having more limit orders in place
Rooglish Sep 4
Odds just jumped up?? But that's odd because the stock market is also up.
0xd23F37B2A075419D9C8751F67E4B8d85F1546064-1767448763814 Aug 9
Blud I think you need to switch up the strategy. Nasdaq and S&P closing new ATHs this month
Rooglish Aug 1
It says all events within 90 days. So it has to all be sudden.
Accalia Jul 31
A slight pullback, which is already recovering.
pika2zero Jul 31
Then its kinda stupid to include smci
NoSteinNoGate Jul 31
Not what the rules say. The 90 day rule means the 3 qualifying events must happen in a 90 day window. Every closing price that is 50% from its all-time high (regardless when that all time high happened) qualifies.
pika2zero Jul 30
Just noticed that smci is down 50% anyway. Now its on soxx to pump from here
Rooglish Jul 29
This bubble is bursting on summer earnings. Looks like this could indeed resolve to yes.
pika2zero Jul 29
From its 2026 all-time high right? Because SMCI was already down >50% from its ATH at time of market creation. They topped in 2024
Rooglish Jun 24
Looking at this again the rules are not favorable for a yes resolution even though the bubble is bursting. Market lower options are far better.
0xb3bD96BEa4509AA02a20587EF7fEf8E322a352c0-1780863652521 Jun 18
I need a december 2027 option
TonyQ7 Jun 10
Fr
Nali20000 May 8
What do you mean?
Wiczus May 7
Bad rules...
Rooglish May 7
Wow the odds keep increasing, but the nadsaq alao keeps puffing up higher into the atmosphere. That is completely... Illogical....but for a wyckoff distribution, is perfectly logical.
Rooglish May 2
This is about to go up in price /yes for by Dec significantly..
Rooglish May 2
This weekend has a very weird feel to it with these tech earnings and open ai problems. Sore video hallucinations. All that weird stuff like strawberries with a berry and straw. The Ai firms haven't fixed this problem. That was actually a reason for the first down market move from 25200 to 23500 summer 2025 support... Then we all concluded to buy the war dip and other stuff that no economist says actually make sense high oil prices are terrible for Ai. For tech. But most market participants don't know this. Yes, we've had a huge bullish move once the institutions stopped selling. People are buying for no reason, but they are, we have another bank failure, national debt a big problem, this fundamentally smells like an economic disaster but has kept meaning (???) higher prices lately for no reason.
fuyangz Apr 23
lol, this is like free money
0x2A96B985c0026a14A25810c93Ce5619920073860-1768249621310 Apr 21
It is but since the market was created. 90 days have already passed so it does not count
rjpoly Apr 18
I'd like to subscribe to more hot takes from people with 0 shares
johnkop4 Mar 30
The rules are bullshit for the following reasons: 1. Just one of many Semi companies dropping 50% from ATH does not really mean much 2. The rental price of H100 could fall to $1 if better hardware comes out or if the computing supply increases drastically 3. The SOXX etf dropping 40% from ATH (2024 levels) could be completely unrelated to AI and instead triggered by general market downturn since semiconductors are a volatile cyclical industry The 3 of those being equal to "AI bubble burst" is ridiculous
archived250101 Mar 26
blah blah blah ediot
arrieta Mar 25
That doesn't affect the resolution of this market based on its rules
archived250101 Mar 25
OpenAI has dissolved Sora.
Shellay Mar 25
The biggest problem with AI foam right now is that the foam isn't big enough.
Gary11111 Mar 14
Baidu kunlunxin trained deepseek v4 so that should definitely pop the bubble
devin.lawson.77 Mar 6
Why is OpenAI being acquired listed as a prong?
0x2A96B985c0026a14A25810c93Ce5619920073860-1768249621310 Mar 4
Super Micro Computer's ATH was 116 on March 07 2024 and it reached a price of 54 on August 12 2024 which was before this market was even created. Am I missing something?
amcik Mar 2
yes
0x12F5D91e9E8EA0092Fb79d47C7753A22B7BFC6bf-1771552894857 Feb 28
Tenemos que fijarnos en el cierre del primer trimestre. (Q3)
Leapfrog Feb 28
It’s hard to understand why this market has held up this long.
LA17 Feb 26
liquidity is trash tho
rootdata Feb 26
Whales are still longing Nvidia and the "Bubble Burst" odds are stuck at 18%.......
DepositEnjoyer Feb 17
The rules are just crazy. It's surprising that anyone actually believes that even two of these insane points can be achieved within 90 days.
phantomtradr Feb 4
Isn't Super Micro already down 50% from ATH?
0x0B19EC6241BdCCe72bD52d8F7aEfc81Eb034408E-1768570893437 Jan 27
Should adjust more period
YankeeOutlaw Jan 26
The Big Short
Whocareslol Jan 26
AI is not a bubble
serialcode Jan 16
in this case you better use your money to short those stocks instead of betting yes here
poopedpants Jan 5
The bankers sitting back writing and under-writing BS like this is bizarre. You should sell yes on all these long tail events you will net out +30% profit easy in 2026
Guggs Jan 2
I could see the H100 rental price dipping hard under certain conditions. I just don't know enough about that market to make an informed guess.
Tian420 Jan 2
you're rly putting that much on the word of the OpenAI's CEO...
Basilomo Dec 18
30% high-priced for 1 year only
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d Dec 8
until it is
0x6d2A1CDAc5c03e3971E58573865C7Cb46e9A8a7b-1761503942019 Dec 8
not gonna dox myself but just know I worked at one of the biggest cloud providers (a key player in the AI market). Besides that doesn't address my point, a 20% improvement over NVDA's SOTA GPUs is not at all plausible
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d Dec 8
you work in tech? because i do
0x6d2A1CDAc5c03e3971E58573865C7Cb46e9A8a7b-1761503942019 Dec 8
Not realistic at all for any manufaturer to produce chips outperforming NVDA's by 20%. Nothing in current technologies makes that plausible
