This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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Comments (50)
0xC4883A436873F58eaab04Edc1E65f3Dd43f27AB0-1778275441218 Sep 16
What does “moderate” even mean? He’s willing to say that there are only two sexes, and that transgender women should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports when doing so could create safety concerns for female athletes. If Talarico isn’t willing to clearly state those two positions, then at least I wouldn’t vote for him.
HDTomo-229 Sep 15
Talarico is not broadly moderate. A large part is just native fluency in kitchen table economics, religion, and just being a plain good speaker. That's just a particularly good outreach method for Texas. His policies could be Mamdani or Manchin and he'd do similar
HDTomo-229 Sep 15
Market decided to finally stop being boring and wrong Texas is arguably bluer than Ohio now
0x3d8219D7845AcB25c9b9f7B479526c67bB62cAa2-1769039445229 Sep 15
Lmfao 😂😆 GOP cheat factor.
AnEggplant Sep 15
Ahem
0xC4883A436873F58eaab04Edc1E65f3Dd43f27AB0-1778275441218 Sep 15
It’s pretty remarkable that Paxton had been leading by around 50 points in Texas at one point, yet Talarico has managed to close the gap so dramatically. I believe there are plenty of rational, pragmatic voters in Texas who aren’t necessarily committed to either party. Perhaps the problem for Democrats in the past was that their candidates were simply too far to the left for many Texas voters. Talarico, by presenting a more moderate and pragmatic image, seems to be attracting a much broader audience than Democrats have in recent years.
themightyslug Aug 31
You know what? Maybe it's better you stick to culture war arguments, because when it comes to actual policy, you don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.
themightyslug Aug 31
Which part of Talarico's plan are you calling “the government setting prices”? Expanding the EITC? Child tax credits? Housing construction? ACA subsidies? Raising the minimum wage? Antitrust enforcement? You're arguing against a policy you invented instead of the one he proposed.
nickle-rich Aug 31
Might not be so bad if obamacare never happened. Gov has a way of screwing up markets it intervenes in.
nickle-rich Aug 31
Libtard voters want the gov setting prices which always goes so well.
nickle-rich Aug 31
Polls are not truthy at all. In fact they are often manipulated for propaganda.
betpro3 Aug 31
Talarico is leading in almost every poll. So unless polls in Texas suddenly reversed their pro-GOP bias in 2018 to a pro-DEM, Talarico is really well positioned
betpro3 Aug 31
"Talarico should run adds with his mistress in London, and cheating on his wife" I think you meant Paxton, whose wife left him on "biblical grounds", i.e. cheating
LuckNorris Aug 29
well they voted for trump so are they not dumb enough? its debatable xd
themightyslug Aug 28
EXCEPT you don't have to get your address validated before the election. You can resolve your suspense status at the polling place by completing a Statement of Residence. For voter ID, you can present one of the following: Texas driver's license, Texas Election Identification Certificate, Texas personal ID card, Texas handgun license, U.S. military ID with photograph, U.S. citizenship certificate with photograph, or U.S. passport (book or card). And if you don't possess one of those and cannot reasonably obtain one, you can fill out a Reasonable Impediment Declaration. The poll worker cannot question the reasonableness of your impediment, and you can still cast a regular ballot by presenting one of the following supporting documents: voter-registration certificate, certified birth certificate or other qualifying birth document, current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or another government document showing your name and address. So these 1.2 million people haven't lost their ability to vote, nor do they have to get their addresses validated before Election Day. They may have an additional paperwork step at the polls, which could still create some turnout friction, but THEY CAN STILL VOTE. Do not let them take away your Constitutional right.
ChetChetwick Aug 27
Texas is suspending 1.2 million voters leading up to the election, that's a big break for Paxton. Folks can try to get their addresses validated but I don't know how many of them are aware or can do it in time.
Teutonik Aug 27
LOL
AnEggplant Aug 27
LMAO this market still pricing this race as a tossup. Paxton could definitely win! But it's less likely than Talarico winning.
JustTheFacts Aug 27
This market doesn't reflect reality even considering the GOP cheat factor in Texas. Every day, Paxton loses more ground.
0xB7E3058376F9A009acEa708Fd2e1dbE9e3989b0e-1730181089284 Aug 27
The state is overwhelmed by boys in girls' sports and Sharia Law, and all Dems want to talk about is affordability, healthcare, and war!
hdtomo Aug 25
The markets are trying way too hard to stop Talarico pricing more than 50%...
ItsRigg3d Aug 24
Neither are gonna happen lol
Panic11 Aug 24
She needs to get onboard fast or the DNC might throw her to the wolves. The primary is over.
Panic11 Aug 24
This comes down to a few simple things: 1) is Talarico 3 points better than Beto was in ‘18 OR is Paxton 3 points worse that Cruz was? 2) is the political environment or demographic changes 3 points more favorable to Dems than ‘18? If either of those are yes Talarico wins. And that’s exactly what markets and polls are predicting. No amount of “Texas is red because Trump” copium will help with those facts.
0x69eDe75eA271d7b229f44b05f55F6edeD97565Fd-1780731021194 Aug 22
TRY GETTING JUST THE Facts1111111111111111111
Donnie1957 Aug 20
i agree that the 10,000 kids taking gender pills and the 10 men competing in women's sports are the biggest issues affecting america. me and homer are proud to be one-issue, low iq voters
Gman01 Aug 20
lol. Soo win with lies. Being a man of god is being accepting to all even if you disagree. Talarico should run adds with his mistress in London, and cheating on his wife. Being corrupt and being impeached by the Texas legislature. Not to mention let’s talk about republicans worrying about making Washington pretty while the war in Iran looks like there’s no end in site.
themightyslug Aug 18
You obviously can’t afford to buy a fucking clue. We consistently rank dead last nationally in healthcare, not because we don’t have the best hospitals and doctors, but because we have the lowest number of people with access.
MLBot Aug 18
You do nothing but lose on polymarket. Best of luck to you, though.
MLBot Aug 18
Our health care is great and I can EASILY afford everything I need.
sports1 Aug 16
Yeah that fake leftist moralizing doesn't work anymore. Welcome to 2026
themightyslug Aug 14
Oh yes. Please. Run those ads. I don’t know a single Texan who gives a fuck about trans kids or men in women’s sports at this particular moment. We want better health care and to be able to afford energy and groceries.
Homer1958 Aug 14
Paxton needs to start running ads. Many Texans don’t know about Talarico and his love for trans kids and men in women’s sports.
0xF29500970706853B3E9a6Ea7e241cF3A9F5B165D-1767903078172 Aug 13
Paxton is to Texas as Keri Lake was to Arizona (if you don't know, look it up). She cost Arizona both a Senate AND Governor seat. And Paxton is so dirty, now Abbott is starting to do poorly in the polls as a knock on effect. Independents are disgusted that republicans elected Paxton over Cornyn in the primaries and are now questioning the entire Texas republican party. Cruz is VERY lucky he's not up for reelection.
President-XI Aug 13
a big fall of R
PUMPAJ Aug 12
clearly it does hahaha, texas wanst always red either
Gulgaio Aug 12
What do you mean. Trump ended that war at least 5 times... Win after win
JulioSigma Aug 12
makes no difference tbh. Texas is a red state and will REMAIN a red state. Never forget the golden rule: "Nothing Ever Happens"
Norco66 Aug 11
And he pardoned a pedo cant forget that one
JustTheFacts Aug 11
Maybe because he leads in every poll and MAGA is a trainwreck
JulioSigma Aug 11
what happened? it flipped? how is talarico in the lead now?
AnEggplant Aug 7
I’m sure that the guy who cheated on his taxes, cheated on his wife, committed voter fraud, and got impeached by his own party has no other scandals that will come to light in the next 3 months
kimjongun123 Aug 6
Crockett still trying her best to tank the Talarico campaign lol.
kimjongun123 Aug 6
The GOP usually doesn't have endless money. They usually get outraised by Dems, especially in '24, when Kamala spent almost double what Trump spent. This cycle is completely different though, most of those billionaires that gave money to Dems in previous cycles aren't doing so now, for a variety of pretty obvious reasons. They don't wanna get targeted by Trump, and they're probably frustrated by how their money was spent by Harris. The only advantage Dems have is their superior grassroots fundraising means individual candidates raise more, this doesn't mean nothing, but they can get swamped by PACs pretty easily. Trumps personal super pac has like half a billion dollars already. I guess it's possible that things tighten up over the next couple months, if some of those billionaires see a blue wave coming and want to be back in the good graces of a Dem Senate majority, but I don't know. On this race, Paxton is clearly a generationally bad candidate, and Talarico is pretty strong, so it might not matter. Another high quality poll today has him down. In any event, the GOP is going to have to spend more than they've ever spent on a race, but they have the capacity.
JustTheFacts Aug 6
I always hear how the GOP has endless money, yet Dems end up outraising them by election time. Dems have control of the financial capital of the world, the third largest economy in the world in Cali, and Hollywood. Kamala outraised Trump in a matter of weeks.
kimjongun123 Aug 6
Paxton's in trouble right now for sure, but I think the national party will bail him out. They've got endless money this cycle. Just a matter of who ends up having to take the hit, it's definitely gonna cost them a couple hundred million. I think his odds will get worse first, though.
PapaXeno Aug 6
thank you for providing me with enough to know to trade against you!
CalvinDay Aug 5
Yep. Petty much. And, I am not a Christian.
Cwwalters2002 Aug 5
Paxton needs 2018 Cruz voters to cross over or a depressed Democratic turnout to win. Neither seems likely. Talarico is a 80+% favorite.
0x955ED7692D9F1622468F2dc438e95d2e3a5280A1-1779187167945 Jul 29
Low IQ says the people that cant even tell what a woman is. Educated? Yea maybe in gender studies which you ppl still get wrong. Lmao
